Swell #1????

[GPTECHMAN]

Friday
12/8UpS 5-10 late Possible Swell #1 building to 3.6 ft @ 17 secs late at exposed north facing breaks 5-6 ft 300-305 degrees
Extended Outlook
Up--- A tiny storm developed on the dateline Fri/Sat (12/2) providing 24 hours of 50-60 kts winds aimed best at Hawaii generating 32-36 ft seas for 12 hours. A far stronger pattern is expect this week as the jetstream consolidated and makes a major push east eventually reaching California late in the week. A series of 3 storms is forecast to push from the dateline east into the southeastern Gulf of Alaska generating 50-55 kt winds and 40-45 ft seas (all three storms) starting Monday and continuing through Sunday (12/10) [See detailed forecast for more info]. Large surf and stormy weather expected.

Who is paddling out with me???:squid:

[Typerr10]

i'm down!!!

[Typerr10]

offshore too, 5ft high tide @10:00...hmm...

[GPTECHMAN]

I thought the winds were going to be onshore 8mph out of the west.
Where did you hear that it was going to be offshore?

Maybe a tide push eh?

[Typerr10]

that was for fridays report from wetsand dot com...i hear DOH by sunday, which means i can't go because i forgot my balls...i'm out of breathe by the time i paddle out

where do u usually surf brudah?

[GPTECHMAN]

in front of my house in del mar, but used to surf blacks, sunset cliffs, scripps, grandview, beacons, or wherever when I was in school.

Its nice when your buddy has the key and his car is registered with UC regents ;)

[GPTECHMAN]

Wednesday the 6th is looking like a "bring your longest board to the beach day" once again. The minor NW that's filling in today should stick around, but we're not expecting anything better than waist high for the west facing breaks with occasional chest high pluses when the tide is right. SW energy is looking nil, so south facing breaks are looking even smaller. The tide will also be extremely high early, shutting down many spots. Winds though should cooperate nicely. More details on the winds here (http://www.wetsand.com/swellwatch/report.asp?locationid=2&tabid=1441&subtabid=0&catid=295&subcatid=295&SPLTabID=350#WINDS), tides here (http://wavecast.com/tides/) and wave heights here (http://wavecast.com/waves).
Thursday the 7th looks smaller, slower, but still longboardable with waist high waves for west facing breaks when the tide is right. The tide will of course remain high for early AM sessions but will be at lower levels than previous days, and winds should be manageable. More details on the winds here (http://www.wetsand.com/swellwatch/report.asp?locationid=2&tabid=1441&subtabid=0&catid=295&subcatid=295&SPLTabID=350#WINDS), tides here (http://wavecast.com/tides/) and wave heights here (http://wavecast.com/waves).
Friday the 8th is when things pick up. We have a significant NW swell due on Saturday the 9th, and some of the forerunners (javascript:flybybook('Forerunners', '4', 'Waves travel at speeds relative to their periods which is also a sign of their strength and resultant size when they hit the coast, with long periods, known as forerunners arriving first.'))are expected to show up on Friday. This looks like 17-second periods from 290 with infrequent sets running chest to head high around west facing breaks, waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks that can work the diffraction (javascript:flybybook('Diffraction', '8', 'A change in direction and intensity of waves after passing by an obstacle or point oftentimes allowing energy to wrap into unexposed areas.'))/wrap. The ETA on this forerunner (javascript:flybybook('Forerunners', '4', 'Waves travel at speeds relative to their periods which is also a sign of their strength and resultant size when they hit the coast, with long periods, known as forerunners arriving first.'))energy is expected by mid morning. Note that on Friday, some models are forecasting a brisk offshore event, and the tide won't be so unwieldy for the dawn patrol/early AM sessions. More details on the winds here (http://www.wetsand.com/swellwatch/report.asp?locationid=2&tabid=1441&subtabid=0&catid=295&subcatid=295&SPLTabID=350#WINDS), tides here (http://wavecast.com/tides/) and wave heights here (http://wavecast.com/waves).
Saturday the 9th we're expecting some very significant NW swell. This is from that massive storm we started tracking last week spinning out of the western Pacific on the long-range models. Today, everything has fallen into place per previous model runs. The jetstream has dropped as anticipated, guiding this storm along at a lower latitude (around 40N), resulting in little angular spreading decay (javascript:flybybook('Angular Spreading', '7', 'The spreading of waves in space due to differences in direction of wave propagation, allowing swell calculations to account for the storms trajectory.')). Periods are running 16-18 seconds, the angle is situated at 280-290 degrees, and this storm's fetch (javascript:flybybook('Fetch', '4', 'The uninterrupted distance over which wind blows without a significant change in direction creating an area of seas that later bring surf.')) is packing some impressive 40 foot seas. The bulk of this storm's fetch (javascript:flybybook('Fetch', '4', 'The uninterrupted distance over which wind blows without a significant change in direction creating an area of seas that later bring surf.')) is about 2000 nautical miles away from us now, but the 48h models still feel this will get within 1100 nautical miles of the California coastline--a close proximity resulting in a low decay factor (javascript:flybybook('Decay Factor', '7', 'A non linear function of energy loss from distance through water. Swells lose little energy until they pass a certain distance, then the loss becomes magnitudes greater.')). When crunching the numbers this morning, we're seeing some impressive size for most west facing breaks.
On Saturday, the bulk of the swell isn't expected to hit SoCal until mid morning. For early AM sessions, we're expecting surf to run head high to two feet overhead at most west facing breaks. By mid morning, that should increase to face heights running 12 feet. Some of this is still based on 24-48h models, but confidence is extremely high on this scenario.
A few things should be noted about this swell though: First, there is a slight chance of precipitation with this one. Models feel the bulk of the rain will stay to the north of SoCal, but the NWS is still calling for a 20% chance of rain. Secondly, this swell has some long and powerful periods to it. This will make for some dissimilarity in size between west facing breaks of varying bathymetry (javascript:flybybook('Bathymetry', '7', 'The measurement of depths of water in the ocean, and the information derived from such measurements; in surf forecasting, primarily related to how waves will shoal or refract.')) and westerly exposure. West facing spots that have steeper bathymetry (javascript:flybybook('Bathymetry', '7', 'The measurement of depths of water in the ocean, and the information derived from such measurements; in surf forecasting, primarily related to how waves will shoal or refract.')) that shoal (javascript:flybybook('Shoaling', '7', 'Changes in wave height as waves move into shallow water. Shoaling increases wave heights proportional to longer wave periods, but varies by the breaks bathymetry.')) well and refract (javascript:flybybook('Refraction', '8', 'The process by which the direction of a moving wave is changed due to its interaction with the bottom topography.')) the NW swell energy ideally--especially those with excellent westerly exposure--will see bigger sets than the slower, longboard-type breaks (particularly those with minimal westerly exposure). Additionally, this swell's long periods can produce some deceiving lulls at times; many waves may look surfable when this swell starts to fill in, while every now and then sets could come in that are far greater in size. And lastly (but certainly not of the least importance), this swell's strength and consistency could increase the risk of riptides (javascript:flybybook('Riptide', '14', 'Also known as a rip current these are strong surface currents of short duration flowing seaward from the shore. Usually appearing as a visible band of agitated water and is the return of movement of water piled up on the shore by incoming waves.')), especially during the outgoing tides at west facing breaks, and alongshore currents (javascript:flybybook('Alongshore Currents', '14', 'A current located in the surf zone moving generally parallel to the shoreline generated by waves breaking at an angle with the shoreline.')) will be a concern as well. Caution is strongly advised on this swell--when in doubt, just stay out.
On Sunday the 10th, this NW'er will be backing down, but that's a rather relative statement. Early AM sessions can expect to see size running at least 2-3 feet overhead at west facing breaks with some DOH sets at standouts.
Monday the 11th this NW'er may get replaced by another swell we're tracking today on the 84h+ models. This one is looking smaller than its predecessor, but at this point, it looks like this swell will fill in Monday with head high + surf, then increase on Tuesday. Weather though could be an issue.
Tuesday the 12th this NW'er is expected to peak with surf running a couple feet overhead. Basing this on 84h models, we'll still need a few more days to firm this up.
Looking out even farther, extreme long-range northern hemisphere models are hinting at even more storms forming shortly that could keep the winter surf going for a while. It's far too early to call these potential swell makers this morning, but we'll stay on top of it, and we'll keep you posted as things progress.

[GPTECHMAN]

Im undergunned, right now the biggest board that I have for that duty is 6'10 mini gun
Im thinking I might have to get me an early xmas present

[Typerr10]

your living every surfers dream! parking is not an issue and your very own surf report...i'm jealous...i'll be paddling out on 12th street on friday after class

[GPTECHMAN]

SWELL FORECAST

Friday the 8th NW swell will start to build as forerunners (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Forerunners%27,%20%274%27,%20% 27Waves%20travel%20at%20speeds%20relative%20to%20t heir%20periods%20which%20is%20also%20a%20sign%20of %20their%20strength%20and%20resultant%20size%20whe n%20they%20hit%20the%20coast,%20with%20long%20peri ods,%20known%20as%20forerunners%20arriving%20first .%27%29)fill in from the hefty swell due this weekend. On Friday, once the NW energy starts to fill in, we’re expecting 17-20 second periods, likely infrequent at times from 290 degrees with sets running chest to head high around west facing breaks, waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks that can work the diffraction (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Diffraction%27,%20%278%27,%20% 27A%20change%20in%20direction%20and%20intensity%20 of%20waves%20after%20passing%20by%20an%20obstacle% 20or%20point%20oftentimes%20allowing%20energy%20to %20wrap%20into%20unexposed%20areas.%27%29)/wrap. The ETA on this forerunner (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Forerunners%27,%20%274%27,%20% 27Waves%20travel%20at%20speeds%20relative%20to%20t heir%20periods%20which%20is%20also%20a%20sign%20of %20their%20strength%20and%20resultant%20size%20whe n%20they%20hit%20the%20coast,%20with%20long%20peri ods,%20known%20as%20forerunners%20arriving%20first .%27%29)energy is expected by mid morning. The dawn patrol sessions may still be stuck in waist high + surf, especially in SD as the NW swell energy takes its time to traverse southward. Size will though increase throughout the morning, reaching slightly overhead by nightfall on Friday. Winds in the AM should be offshore, yet there will still be a fairly high tide mid to late morning. More details on the winds here (http://www.wetsand.com/swellwatch/report.asp?locationid=2&tabid=1441&subtabid=0&catid=295&subcatid=0&SPLTabID=350#WINDS), tides here (http://wavecast.com/tides/) and wave heights here (http://wavecast.com/waves).

Saturday the 9th the entire coast will see the impact from that massive storm we started tracking last week spinning out of the western Pacific. Today, everything continues to fall into place per previous model runs. The jetstream dropped as anticipated, guiding this storm along at a low latitude (around 40N), resulting in very little angular spreading decay (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Angular%20Spreading%27,%20%277 %27,%20%27The%20spreading%20of%20waves%20in%20spac e%20due%20to%20differences%20in%20direction%20of%2 0wave%20propagation,%20allowing%20swell%20calculat ions%20to%20account%20for%20the%20storms%20traject ory.%27%29). Periods are running 16-18 seconds, the angle is situated at 280-290 degrees, and this storm's fetch (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Fetch%27,%20%274%27,%20%27The% 20uninterrupted%20distance%20over%20which%20wind%2 0blows%20without%20a%20significant%20change%20in%2 0direction%20creating%20an%20area%20of%20seas%20th at%20later%20bring%20surf.%27%29) is still packing some impressive 30-40 foot seas. The bulk of this storm's fetch (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Fetch%27,%20%274%27,%20%27The% 20uninterrupted%20distance%20over%20which%20wind%2 0blows%20without%20a%20significant%20change%20in%2 0direction%20creating%20an%20area%20of%20seas%20th at%20later%20bring%20surf.%27%29) is about 1100 nautical miles away from us now --a close proximity resulting in a low decay factor (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Decay%20Factor%27,%20%277%27,% 20%27A%20non%20linear%20function%20of%20energy%20l oss%20from%20distance%20through%20water.%20Swells% 20lose%20little%20energy%20until%20they%20pass%20a %20certain%20distance,%20then%20the%20loss%20becom es%20magnitudes%20greater.%27%29). When crunching the numbers this morning, we're seeing some impressive size for most west facing breaks with south facing breaks seeing plenty of diffraction (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Diffraction%27,%20%278%27,%20% 27A%20change%20in%20direction%20and%20intensity%20 of%20waves%20after%20passing%20by%20an%20obstacle% 20or%20point%20oftentimes%20allowing%20energy%20to %20wrap%20into%20unexposed%20areas.%27%29).

On Saturday, we're looking at size running 10-12 feet on the faces along west facing breaks. Standouts could even see some set waves running a little bigger at times. Direct south facing breaks should see size running chest to head high, bigger though at breaks with SW'erly exposure.
As mentioned in previous reports, there are a few things to note about this swell: First, there is a slight chance of precipitation with this one. Models feel the bulk of the rain will stay to the north of SoCal, but the NWS is still calling for a 20-30% chance of rain with the best chances on Saturday and Sunday. Secondly, this swell has some long and powerful periods to it. This will make for some dissimilarity in size between west facing breaks of varying bathymetry (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Bathymetry%27,%20%277%27,%20%2 7The%20measurement%20of%20depths%20of%20water%20in %20the%20ocean,%20and%20the%20information%20derive d%20from%20such%20measurements;%20in%20surf%20fore casting,%20primarily%20related%20to%20how%20waves% 20will%20shoal%20or%20refract.%27%29) and westerly exposure. West facing spots that have steeper bathymetry (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Bathymetry%27,%20%277%27,%20%2 7The%20measurement%20of%20depths%20of%20water%20in %20the%20ocean,%20and%20the%20information%20derive d%20from%20such%20measurements;%20in%20surf%20fore casting,%20primarily%20related%20to%20how%20waves% 20will%20shoal%20or%20refract.%27%29) that shoal (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Shoaling%27,%20%277%27,%20%27C hanges%20in%20wave%20height%20as%20waves%20move%20 into%20shallow%20water.%20Shoaling%20increases%20w ave%20heights%20proportional%20to%20longer%20wave% 20periods,%20but%20varies%20by%20the%20breaks%20ba thymetry.%27%29) well and refract (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Refraction%27,%20%278%27,%20%2 7The%20process%20by%20which%20the%20direction%20of %20a%20moving%20wave%20is%20changed%20due%20to%20i ts%20interaction%20with%20the%20bottom%20topograph y.%27%29) the NW swell energy ideally--especially those with excellent westerly exposure--will see bigger sets than the slower, longboard-type breaks (particularly those with minimal westerly exposure). Additionally, this swell's long periods can produce some deceiving lulls at times; many waves may look surfable when this swell starts to fill in Friday, while every now and then sets could come in that are far greater in size. And lastly (but certainly not of the least importance), this swell's strength and consistency will very likely increase the risk of riptides (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Riptide%27,%20%2714%27,%20%27A lso%20known%20as%20a%20rip%20current%20these%20are %20strong%20surface%20currents%20of%20short%20dura tion%20flowing%20seaward%20from%20the%20shore.%20U sually%20appearing%20as%20a%20visible%20band%20of% 20agitated%20water%20and%20is%20the%20return%20of% 20movement%20of%20water%20piled%20up%20on%20the%20 shore%20by%20incoming%20waves.%27%29), especially during the outgoing tides at west facing breaks. Alongshore currents (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:flybybook%28%27Alongshore%20Currents%27,%20%2 714%27,%20%27A%20current%20located%20in%20the%20su rf%20zone%20moving%20generally%20parallel%20to%20t he%20shoreline%20generated%20by%20waves%20breaking %20at%20an%20angle%20with%20the%20shoreline.%27%29 ) will be a concern from this as well. Caution is strongly advised on this swell--when in doubt, just stay out.

On Sunday the 10th, this NW'er will back down slightly with size still running about three feet overhead to DOH around west facing breaks.

Monday the 11th this NW'er is expected to be replaced by another NW swell we started tracking in our last report. Although still based on 48h+ models, this one is looking today to be strong enough to keep face heights around 10 feet or so around west facing breaks. Conservatively speaking, size should be at least 3-feet overhead, but DOH is more like it--according to this morning's models.

Tuesday the 12th this NW'er is expected to stick around with surf running 2-3 feet overhead. Basing this on 48h models though, we'll need to see how this plays out over the next few days.

Wednesday the 13th the NW should back down, but size should still hover around head high to a foot or so overhead.

Thursday the 14th looks similar, but possibly about 10-15% smaller.

Our next NW swell is being tracked for the 17th. Models feel that another hefty storm will spin out of the western Pacific and head our way. Basing this on 120h+ models, it's far too early to call with a high degree of confidence this morning, but we'll stay on top of it and keep you posted as things progress.

[Hof-Rock]

Always right before finals. Oh well, I'll be at Black's, or boating in down south...

[MilesPerHour]

YES! I was planning hitting up the beach this weekend too, it'll be fun to watch. I don't have a suit or a board but I still enjoy watching! Would be nice to have some of that stuff, but right now I gotta pay the bills...

[GPTECHMAN]

Always right before finals. Oh well, I'll be at Black's, or boating in down south...
Josh got any mid-range semi guns you can hook me up with...looking for something in the 7'6 range

[SilverRider]

Last time I surfed double overhead on my 6'4" it ended up in half. It was only 2 weeks old. My other board is too small for this size 6'2". Have fun out there. I will be checking it from the cliffs. Maybe I will paddle out if it is only overhead.

[Lost]

a 6'2 is a fun size for DOH. Just make sure its narrow. My favorite size was 6'2 -6'4 18 1/4, 2 1/4 . Pretty much a potato chip, but damn fun. Now with the styro blanks, i got no idea what good dimentions. I hear that the styro boards are hella light and have a ton more flotation.

[SilverRider]

My snapped Al Merrick was not strong enough for the size. It didn't even take a direct hit. It was just big white water that folded it. Lite boards are fun but do not hold hub as well. I used to surf Santa Cruz all of the time on a small board with sizable surf and had no problems. That was the old days though when boards were glassed twice as thick.

[Hof-Rock]

Josh got any mid-range semi guns you can hook me up with...looking for something in the 7'6 range

Sorry Sean I'll be on a 6'10 myself, had to sell off like 10 boards to pay for school. Oh and anyone that wants to join me on this swell with a 6'4, well...good luck to you.

[Typerr10]

it's all about the retro fish!!! i'ma bring out my 5'6 KG twinzer...yes, 5'6 it's a fatty...very fast, but really loose...it rides whatever i can paddle into...

p.s. i'm not crazy, it works!

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r18/typerr10/1079160926_l.jpg

[GPTECHMAN]

you are going to paddle out on a fish?

[GPTECHMAN]

6'10 merrick mini-gun for me
Magic board dont fail me now;)

[Typerr10]

just friday...if i find my balls to surf saturday or sunday i have a pin...

[GPTECHMAN]

friday's not going to have any surf really. That swell is being pushed back later and later. what is it now sat to monday

[Typerr10]

oh really, dang...

[Typerr10]

check out the report for hawaii...OMG 28ft faces by friday...tow-in, yeah

[Hof-Rock]

check out the report for hawaii...OMG 28ft faces by friday...tow-in, yeah

Yup, 2 of my roommates just got on a plane headed for Pipe Masters. I may meet them out there Wednesday after my last final.

[Typerr10]

I wanna go!

[GPTECHMAN]

Stroble-san is there right now....stroble would go

[Typerr10]

...Paul howzit?...if del mar going off?

[Typerr10]

i'm still at school...i'm itching to surf...haha

[GPTECHMAN]

its actually crappy out. Super windy, stormy conditions....no rain yet though

[GPTECHMAN]

Oh god its beautiful...






http://cdip.ucsd.edu/recent/model_images/socal_now.png

[GPTECHMAN]

Going....

[MilesPerHour]

Im headin to blacks right now!

[MilesPerHour]

Man it was rippin today, the waves were so meaty, I saw 7 broken boards... such a great day

[Typerr10]

Word, looks fun!

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r18/typerr10/surf-pic-of-the-day.jpg

[Hof-Rock]

Yup, Black's was fun this morning. Got shacked a time or two, good stuff.

[allfortheride]

I didn't head out, but Warmwater was nice today. Way too many people in the water though:rifle: Wonder how Point Loma area was?
http://allfortheride.smugmug.com/photos/115871680-M.jpg
http://allfortheride.smugmug.com/photos/115871675-M.jpg
http://allfortheride.smugmug.com/photos/115871684-M.jpg
http://allfortheride.smugmug.com/photos/115871689-M.jpg

[shichyea]

Stroble-san is there right now....stroble would go


yes the wind has been howling the past two days... but its looking good for sunday/monday. swell is filling back in... 3xOH... so the pipemasters should be on, i'm excited to watch. got some good video at log cabins/rockpile thursday, and some shave ice bra :guitar: